More carriers in the U.S. are expressing optimism for increases in volumes, but recent history shows that despite high hopes, rate and volume growth has yet to fully materialize.

he steady growth of the economy is producing increasingly positive expectations from carriers, according to the latest survey by Transport Capital Partners. Since the fourth quarter of 2012, positive volume expectations have risen to 61% from 29%.

A majority of carriers are also expecting rates to climb over the coming 12 months. Almost three times as many carriers are optimistic about rate increases than those that are pessimistic. Smaller carries (those grossing under $25 million per year) are slightly more positive about rate expectations that their larger counterparts – 65% vs. 60%.

“Volumes and rates continue to be more entwined as positive GDP numbers are laid on top of effective capacity brought down by the CSA driver hour mandates,” says Steven Dutro, TCP Partner. “If 5-10% of driver hours have been reduced in the systems, 5 to 10% more drivers are required with higher pay. And in most cases it appears carriers will need to buy more trucks, adding to their fixed costs.”

However, despite this optimism, rate and volume growth has yet to fully materialize – aside from the construction, petroleum, and seasonal freight sectors.

For the past 16 quarters (since February 2010), a majority of carriers have expected rates to increase. However, it is only since the first quarter of 2013 that rates have actually risen, says TCP. Seventy-two percent of carriers saw rates remain the same for this quarter. This quarter, more smaller carriers experienced rate increases than larger carriers – 36% vs. 20%.

In the OTA’s Q413 Business Expectations survey released last month, carriers reported significant improvements in volumes over the last few months — including southbound lanes — but expressed tempered optimism for the New Year.