Current US trucking market conditions could be the calm before next year’s storm, which could bring a major shift in capacity availability – as much as 10% either way — as a result of economic and regulatory forces, says Noel Perry, senior transportation economist at FTR.

As reported by Truck News, Perry insists the trucking industry is currently experiencing a calm before next year’s storm, which he says could  see capacity either drastically decreased by productivity-choking regulations or increased due to an incoming recession.

Trucking could face an “unprecedented range of outcomes” over the next few years, he explains:

“A swing of just 5% is enough to dramatically impact pricing in the marketplace. A swing of 10% – that would be a disruptive event, for both transport executives and supply chain professionals. There will be companies with their heads stuck in the sand; you don’t want to be one of those companies.”

FTR acknowledges the chances of a recession are increasing, due to bad economic news elsewhere in the world and a recovery that is “clearly getting old,” Truck News reports.

However, the arrival of new safety regulations could push capacity utilization to 100%, giving carriers some welcomed pricing power and putting supply chain professionals in the hot seat.